Wisconsin just helped me out. They, a #12 seed, beat #5 seed Florida State, meaning I called two of the three #12s that beat #5s, here in the first round. Almost picked the third, too, but waffled at the last minute. I also didn't foresee Dayton winning, or, bless its heart, Cleveland State, whose knocking off of Wake Forest could hurt me a little in the next round. But I'm in pretty good shape at this point.
Our tourney site has a handy-dandy column, "Max," that shows the number of potential points a contender could still get. That's my column. I watch that one. Right now, though I'm in a three-way tie for first, only one other matches me in that column; she's in a 5-way tie for 7th.
I may be relying too much on Oklahoma to get a long way. Word is they depend a lot on one guy, and I'm not crazy about that way of winning.